2022 is Already The Worst Year For Rates Since 1979

2022 has already had its fair share of bad news for mortgage rates, but this week was not to be outdone.  It began as just another reasonably bad week with rates moving moderately higher, but still safely under the recent 13 year high seen on the morning of May 9th.  But it ended with one of the worst days on record in more than a decade. Sound a little dramatic?   Sadly, it was.  The average lender increased 30yr fixed rates by at least a quarter of a point (0.25%).  That’s only happened 4 other times since our daily record keeping began in 2009, and 3 of those were during the once-in-a-lifetime volatility that followed the onset of the pandemic.  That made this the 4th worst week since 2009 as well. When the smoke cleared, the average conforming 30yr fixed rate was as high as it’s been since November 2008. If that line looks a little steep recently, that’s because with barely half of it in the books, 2022 has been the worst year for rates since 1979 . Whether we’re talking about the short term drama on Friday or the bigger picture rout in 2022, the culprit is the same:  inflation . There are many ways to measure it, but if markets could only choose one inflation report to rule them all, it would be the monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI).  The following chart shows overall CPI (including food/fuel) and “core” CPI which excludes food and fuel:
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