Heartbreaking Day Leaves Mortgage Rates Much Higher Than 6.29%

At the close of business yesterday, there was hope.  Well, to be fair, there’s still hope, but it’s much less immediate, and it certainly isn’t the first thing that comes to mind today.   Yesterday’s hope stemmed from a combination of factors.  Rates had risen at a break-neck pace since the beginning of August, accelerating to the most troubling pace in the week following the most recent Consumer Price Index (CPI) release–a key inflation report that guides decisions of the Fed.   CPI had extra oomph due to the proximity of the next Fed meeting (the one we just lived through yesterday).  Market participants expected the Fed to signal an even firmer commitment to its rate hike outlook as a result.  Not only did that happen, but in the Fed’s forecast summary, there was a strong shift in expectations for even higher rates in the coming months and years. Granted, the members of the Fed can’t begin to guarantee or even reasonably predict that rates will be as high in 2023-2025 as yesterday’s forecasts suggested, but if they had to guess at those levels based on what they know today, those are their guesses.   How high do they see rates?  That doesn’t matter.  I could tell you that almost a third of the Fed sees the Fed Funds Rate at 5.0% by the end of 2023, but that’s the Fed Funds Rate–not mortgage rates.  The two are both similar and different, and if you’re not sure why, be sure to check in with our primer on the topic here:   No, The Fed Hike Doesn’t Mean Anything For Mortgage Rates.
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