Mortgage Rates Are a Bit Higher (And Way Lower) Than You've Been Told

It’s hard to avoid bad news about rising mortgage rates in 2022, but you can’t believe everything you read.  It is true that mortgage rates have been surging higher in 2022.  A previous article (read it here) goes into greater detail about the root causes, but in a nutshell:
the pandemic pushed rates significantly lower at first
the Fed was very aggressive in stimulating the economy via low policy rates and bond buying that lowered long-term rates
inflation began to pick up due to supply chain issues and surprisingly resilient demand
but the Fed continued providing accommodation for several reasons including uncertainty over covid variants, an updated inflation framework that allowed for more inflation, and the mistaken assumption that inflation would calm down more readily than it has
the Fed finally began to tighten policy in late 2021, and got incrementally tougher over the following months
the Ukraine war caused a quick head fake that initially helped rates recovery, but it was followed by a surge in inflation concern that caused the Fed to signal even more aggressive policy tightening
That’s the saga of 2022’s rate spike in a nutshell, but pictures do it more justice.  Here’s how inflation looks, both in monthly and annual terms: One of the reasons the Fed is so worried is that this chart really doesn’t convey much of the new inflation expected as a result of the Ukraine war.  In other words, the big spike in the middle of 2021 (orange line) might have been the peak, but Ukraine increased the odds of a resurgence.  The Fed has responded with the most aggressive tightening in modern memory.  Here’s how Fed rate hike expectations have evolved:
Source: mortgagenewsdaily.comNew feed